Growing 16–18 numbers, shrinking options? Rethinking space and staffing after this week’s DfE update

Date | 20th February 2026

Growing 16–18 demand is back on the DfE agenda – but so are the limits on space and staffing in colleges. This week’s FE update and estates announcements ask leaders to think again about how many students they can realistically serve between now and 2030 and what it would take to make those numbers workable on the ground.

New capital for post‑16 places

The eye‑catcher is the latest post‑16 and construction skills capacity funding round for non‑devolved areas, worth almost £300 million over four years. Bids are open now, with a deadline of 17 April 2026, and the guidance is clear that projects must create an extra 16–19 places where demographic growth is strongest rather than pay for long‑planned refurbishments. FE Week highlights DfE analysis using ONS data showing 16–17 populations rising by up to around 19 per cent in some local authorities at the peak of the bulge – a level of growth that many timetabling and estates teams will already recognise from enrolment pressure on core level 2 and level 3 programmes.

A 10‑year estates reset

At the same time, DfE has set out a 10‑year “education estates strategy” that includes a £710 million programme between 2026 and 2030 for renewal and retrofit across schools and colleges. The strategy promises a new FE estate management standard, better sharing of condition data and a digital service to manage education estate information. For colleges still teaching 16–18s in temporary cabins or juggling science, construction and digital rooms across multiple sites, this looks like a chance to move away from annual firefighting and into more planned conversations with officials about space.

Joining up estates and curriculum

Talking FE’s view is that estates and curriculum teams will need to work hand in glove if bids are going to stack up. The capacity guidance expects colleges to evidence how new space links to specific study programmes, classroom sizes and utilisation – not just headline learner numbers. MIS colleagues will be asked to pull timetable data, rooming patterns and projected group sizes; heads of department will need to sense‑check whether the modelled groups bear any resemblance to reality in September. Does this timetable data match what is really happening in classrooms, or are projected rooms already overfull on a Wednesday morning?

Workforce data moves centre stage

Meanwhile, the same DfE update quietly pushes two workforce and inclusion stories up the agenda. The FE teacher full‑time equivalent (FTE) data collection closes on 16 February 2026 and asks colleges to submit teaching FTE across three academic years. DfE is explicit that it will use these figures to monitor changes in teacher numbers and shape future workforce policy and funding decisions. In practice, that means HR and MIS teams spending the next week reconciling staff records and contracts, while senior teams start to join the dots: if the department can see teacher FTE by subject over time, how might that feed into future allocations or accountability debates?

High‑needs places and mainstream growth

Alongside this sits the publication of high‑needs place change outcomes for 2026 to 2027, with a short window to query data before 27 February. For many general FE colleges with growing SEND cohorts in mainstream 16–18 provision, the interaction between high‑needs numbers, support spaces and standard classrooms is already a regular SMT item. A college that secures capital to expand level 3 classrooms but cannot secure enough high‑needs places – or specialist staff – may quickly find itself stretching ALS rooms, sensory spaces and quiet zones beyond what is sustainable.

One capacity question for colleges

Talking FE’s view is that colleges cannot afford to treat estates capital, teacher FTE returns and high‑needs places as three separate workstreams handled by different managers. They are one combined question about capacity: how many 16–18 students can we serve well, in decent rooms, with the teachers and support staff we can recruit and keep? The colleges that come through this demographic peak in good shape are likely to be the ones where estates, curriculum, HR, finance and SEND leaders sit down together now, look at the same data, and are honest about where growth is still possible – and where options are already shrinking.